2025年までの公立小中学校教員需要推計 : 戦後第３の不況期はいつ到来するか

There are two cycles of demands for school teachers for seventy years after the second world war in Japan. We are now in the third period of increasing demands. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the demands for primary and junior high school teachers for more than ten years from 2014 to 2025.　　

It was found that demands for primary and junior high school teachers would reach the peak each around 2017 and 2020. Demand for primary school teachers will begin to decrease substantially around 2021. The third recession period of the demand will be expected to come around 2023 or later.　　

The year and amount of the peak of the demands will differ among regions. In Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas, demand for primary school teachers has already decreased. The demand will decrease rapidly after 2021. However, in Tohoku, southern Kyushu and Okinawa, the demand will reach the peak around 2020.　　

Reconsiderations of the size of teacher education programs, especially for the primary school teachers, will be necessary. The central government and prefectural boards of education should consider the regional differences of teacher demands.