なぜ、被爆者は証言するのか : 被爆75年アンケート調査結果を用いた数理モデル構築の試み

Seventy-five years after the nuclear detonations over the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, survivors (hibakusha) continue to offer their testimonies. Their tenacity is intriguing given their advanced age and the physical and other lifelong challenges they face. In the current nuclear climate, their efforts may even seem futile. What motivates these survivors to share their stories of atrocity with strangers, and what outcomes do they expect? This empirical study investigates the driving factors in hibakusha testimony. Using the 75th anniversary survey responses, a database was created to investigate the individual and collective opinions of hibakusha on three key themes: personal challenges, nuclear disarmament, and legacies for future generations. Based on descriptive statistics and multivariate (binomial logistic regression) analysis, the results revealed multi-layered factors that contribute to the act of giving testimonies. Furthermore, we propose a statistical model that characterizes those hibakusha who offer testimonies of their survival. The findings shed new light on the survivors’ mindscape and how they participate in the international grassroots campaign for nuclear disarmament, while struggling to overcome various physical, psychological, and socioeconomic hardships that transcend enmity towards the perpetrators.