交錯する権力政治と共振する脅威認識 : 流動化するペルシャ湾岸地域秩序と「アドバンスド・スルタニズム」論の可能性？

This article reviews two books about the Persian Gulf politics. One is Mehran Kamrava, Troubled Water Insecurity in the Persian Gulf (Cornell University Press, 2018). Another is Christopher M. Davidson, From Sheikhs to Sultanism: Statecraft and Authority in Saudi Arabia and the UAE (Oxford University Press, 2021). Both tackle recent structural changes within Gulf countries from different perspectives. On the one hand, Kamrava examines the reason why the Persian Gulf has been insecure for decades, focusing especially on the situation after the Arab Uprising. It is argued that the Persian Gulf ’s consistent insecurity is attributed to four factors, which includes historical path independence with its security complex, the commitment of the US maintaining its insecure structure, GCC countries’ policy and preference, and the intractable security dilemma. These corelating variables has made the insecurity in the region intractable and self-sustaining. On the other hand, Davidson argues that the power structure shifting within Saudi Arabia and the UAE exemplify the emerging advanced-sultanism regime which is characterized with its concentration of power to individual authority and its distance from ideologies, while their new polity retain some features of their predecessors’ rentierism. Thus, recent emerging regime within Saudi and UAE indicates another sub-category in advanced-sultanism. Given by these literatures, in conclusion, we suggest that two possible research prospects. First, it is necessary further consideration of China effects on the security architecture within the Persian Gulf. Second, the deeper examination into the processes of statecrafts among the GCC countries to examine the effects on their foreign policies can sophisticate conventional analytical framework for the Persian Gulf ’s security and the theory of neoclassical realism.