出身地域別に見た大学教育投資収益率 : 地域移動をともなう就職・進学行動に着目して

In this paper, we attempt to estimate the private internal rate of return on investments in college education for males by prefecture of origin, based on custom-made tabulations of the 2010 Basic Survey on Wage Structure, with a focus on the employment and college enrollment behavior with regional mobility.
The main findings are summarized as follows. First, the estimated rate of return using opportunity costs only from wages of high school graduates and college and graduate school graduates in the same prefecture, or the “within-prefecture rate of return,” is higher in prefectures with lower rates of male college attendance. Second, this is a result that largely reflects the situation in provincial areas, and if limited to metropolitan areas, the higher the “within-prefecture rate of return” is in a prefecture, the higher the rate of college enrollment is in that prefecture. Third, when the weighted average of expected rates of return is calculated taking inter-prefectural migration into account, the negative correlation between the rate of return and the rate of advancement to college becomes smaller in the provincial areas. On the other hand, the magnitude of the positive correlation between two variables in metropolitan areas does not change much. Fourth, in provincial areas, the higher the standard deviation of the expected rate of return (i.e., the risk of investment in college education), the lower the rate of advancement to college. Fifth, when direct costs, which vary depending on the type of enrollment and employment mobility assumed, are added to opportunity costs, the rate of return is higher in provincial areas for students who commute home to a university in the prefecture than for those who go away from home to a university outside the prefecture. In addition, the rate of return is higher for those who work in areas with higher wage levels after college than in their home prefectures. On the other hand, in metropolitan areas, the differences between the types are small and stable returns are expected.
The contribution of this paper is to estimate the rate of return by taking into account inter-prefectural migration, and to clarify the distribution and variation of the estimates.