On the effect of background seismicity in physics-based earthquake simulations

Bazrafshan Arsalan

Khaji Naser

Paolucci Roberto

Journal of Asian Earth Sciences

Physics-based simulations have been extensively employed to generate synthetic earthquake catalogs over the past decade. In this kind of simulation, primary known faults are typically modeled, while smaller and intermediate faults are often neglected. As a result, the location of earthquakes in the simulation is confined to the modeled faults. Furthermore, due to the elimination of off-fault seismicity, a complete match of the frequency-magnitude distribution of the synthetic catalog with observed data is not achieved. This paper presents an approach to include off-fault seismicity (or background seismicity) within the simulation. First, background earthquakes are separated from the primary faults’ earthquakes, and a fault section is assigned to each event. By employing a scaling relationship, the dimensions of these fault sections are determined according to the magnitude of the corresponding event. The fault section’s slip rates are estimated based on the observed frequency-magnitude distribution. Combining the background fault model with the primary fault model results in a comprehensive model that accounts for all stress interactions between fault elements within the simulator in actual locations. As a result, a broader range of frequency-magnitude distribution in the synthetic catalog can be matched to the observations. A case study using one of the available simulators, Virtual Quake, on a sample area is presented. The results demonstrate that eliminating off-fault seismicity could lead to an underestimated assessment of the earthquake probabilities for the whole region and a biased estimation of earthquake rates in individual faults.

Earthquake simulator

Seismic catalogs

Frequency-magnitude distribution

Background seismicity

Forecasting

NW Iran

英語

Elsevier

© 2024. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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[DOI] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2024.106261 ～の異版である