Spatiotemporal Changes of Traffic Demand Price Elasticities in Japan Throughout 2008 Bayesian Approach

Transportation Research Record Volume 2156 Page 81-92 published_at 2010
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Title ( eng )
Spatiotemporal Changes of Traffic Demand Price Elasticities in Japan Throughout 2008 Bayesian Approach
Creator
Lee BackJin
Source Title
Transportation Research Record
Volume 2156
Start Page 81
End Page 92
Abstract
This study attempts to,examine spatiotemporal changes of traffic demand elasticities regarding gasoline prices and economic conditions and focusing on the substantial fluctuations that occurred throughout 2008 in Japan This research is aim led at a better understanding of the spatial and temporal instability of the elasticities and possible reasons for changes in the elasticities First, a random coefficient model is built to represent spatial heterogeneity in the elasticities and is estimated by using a hierar ducal Bayesnin method Next, a sequential Bayesian updating method is applied to examine monthly changes in the elasticities The data used in the empirical analylsis were monthly traffic volume data collected on 53 expressways The results showed that although the monthly changes in the average elasticities over all routes were mainly observed before August 2008, different directions of change across routes were observed after September 2008 when gasoline prices began to fall The results also indicated that responses to gasoline price changes might be dependent on the causes of price changes Furthermore, on urban expressways, it was found that once a reduction in traffic demand was attained because of rising gasoline prices, the demand did not fully recover even after the actual prices fell again to the original level
Keywords
Traffic demand
Gasoline price
Elasticity
Spatiotemporal changes
Bayesian updating
Random coefficient model
NDC
Transportation services [ 680 ]
Language
eng
Resource Type journal article
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Date of Issued 2010
Rights
Copyright (c) 2010 National Academy of Sciences
Publish Type Author’s Original
Access Rights open access
Source Identifier
[ISSN] 0361-1981
[DOI] 10.3141/2156-10
[NCID] AA00457420
[DOI] http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2156-10