Downscaling Urban Resilience Assessment: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Blocks using the Fuzzy Delphi Method and K-means Clustering

Moradpour Nabi

Pourahmad Ahmad

Ziari Keramatollah

Hataminejad Hossein

Sharifi Ayyoob

Building and Environment

The spatiotemporal assessment of urban resilience is crucial for planning and policy-making toward addressing climate change and other societal challenges. However, our comprehension of urban resilience at smaller scales is limited. This study not only advances urban resilience research by developing an efficient measurement approach but also contributes to practice by evaluating resilience at the city block level, thereby informing targeted interventions. Our study aimed to downscale the unit of analysis for urban resilience assessment by focusing on the social, economic, housing and infrastructural, and environmental dimensions of blocks in the southern districts of Tehran between 2006 and 2016. The Fuzzy Delphi Method was utilized to determine the indicators for urban resilience assessment. The Analytic Hierarchy Process technique was employed to weigh these indicators. Subsequently, the PROMETHEE technique was applied to evaluate the resilience of urban blocks. Finally, the K-Means algorithm was utilized to cluster the urban blocks. The results indicate that from 2006 to 2016, the southern districts of Tehran saw a marked reduction in overall resilience. This decline affected 48 % of the urban blocks, encompassing 60 % of the area and 62 % of the population. The results of applying the K-means algorithm for urban block clustering did not align with the boundaries of the southern districts of Tehran. This finding highlights that assessing resilience on smaller scales could lead to more accurate conclusions.

Urban resilience

Resilience assessment

Fuzzy Delphi method

Urban planning

Cities

eng

Elsevier

© <2024>. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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[DOI] https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2024.111898 isVersionOf