Emissions trading schemes in Japan : their potential and possible impact

Ichihashi Masaru

Yano Shunsuke

IDEC DP2 Series

This paper examines the impact of introducing an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Japan using an input-output model. Using demand forecast data from the Ministry of the Environment (2012), we examined the impacts of two cases: one in which emissions were reduced without introducing a scheme (the business as usual (BAU) case) and one in which a scheme was introduced (ETS case). In both cases, the aggregate repercussion effects were negative, but the negative impact was significantly greater in the ETS case (1.3 trillion JPY, which is approximately 0.14% of GDP). The negative repercussion effects are consistent with the results from MOE (2012). However, our study showed positive repercussion effects on employment regardless of employment status. This occurs because the labor absorptive capacity is low in sectors such as steel, where demand will decline due to the introduction of a scheme, so there is a small impact on employment; in contrast, sectors that benefit from the adoption of the scheme have high labor absorptive capacities. Accordingly, the adoption of an ETS in Japan would be positive for jobs but would not have a significant impact in terms of stimulating output.

Emissions Trading Scheme

Japanese Economy Growth

Input-Output model

Repercussion Effects

JEL: Q51

JEL: Q56

JEL: R11

JEL: R15

Economics [ 330 ]

eng

広島大学大学院国際協力研究科