The Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Vietnam : Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

地域経済研究 Issue 27 Page 63-71 published_at 2016-03
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Title ( eng )
The Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Vietnam : Evidence from Cointegration Analysis
Creator
Le Thuan Dong
Source Title
地域経済研究
The Bulletin of the Center for Research on Regional Economic Systems, the Graduate School of Social Science, Hiroshima University
Issue 27
Start Page 63
End Page 71
Journal Identifire
[PISSN] 1884-7455
[NCID] AN10175890
Abstract
There has been many researchers studied the effects of exchange rate on trade balance in Vietnam, when it's real exchange rate began appreciating in 2003. However, empirical studies examining the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance are limited. Most studies focus on only the long-run relationship; the short-run effect of exchange rate on trade balance has not been properly explored. This paper aims to fill this gap by measuring the effects of exchange rate on trade balance in the long run and short run, applying the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration with an error correction model (ECM) to explore the long-run and short-run relationships. The empirical analysis shows that there is evidence of J-curve only in Japan, Malaysia and Thailand models, and Marshall-Lerner condition holds in both aggregate model and disaggregate models except Singapore model.
Keywords
trade balance
exchange rate
ARDL method
and error correction model.
Descriptions
The results in this paper were represented in the 52nd annual meeting of the Japan Section of the Regional Society Association International held at Okayama University, October 2015.
NDC
Economics [ 330 ]
Language
eng
Resource Type departmental bulletin paper
Publisher
広島大学大学院社会科学研究科附属地域経済システム研究センター
Date of Issued 2016-03
Publish Type Version of Record
Access Rights open access
Source Identifier
[ISSN] 1884-7455
[NCID] AN10175890
[NAID] 40020808990