中国における工業化の進展と農工間資金移動の役割 <論説>

近年中国の経済規模が大幅に拡大しており、世界全体に与える影響も年を追うごとに大きくなっている。一般的に、経済発展の初期段階では実質賃金の上昇が見られない。これは農村に膨大な過剰労働力があり、都市の賃金が上昇すると彼らが都市に移動して賃金の上昇分を取り込んでしまうからである。中国はこの膨大な労働力を利用することによって工業化を進めており、またその安価な労働力の利用を目的に海外からの直接投資も増加してきた。しかし、その一方で中国で労働力が不足しているという報告も増えている。

本稿では、中国の工業化の進展が、産業構造や労働市場にもたらす変化を検討する。各省ごとに農業部門流出労働力と実質賃金の関係を見ると、1990年前後に実質賃金の上昇が見られる。他方、工業化の進展には、工業部門の資金調達が重要な課題である。日本の明治期には、鉄道・電話などの分野で農業部門からの融資が行われ、この農業部門から工業部門への融資が近代部門の成長を促したことが知られている。そこで、金融面に注目し中国の農工間の資金移動を推計すると、1989年を境に農業部門が余剰資金の発生する黒字主体となっていることが観察され、この余剰資金が工業化を促進したことが確認された。

In this paper, we are seeking to find out whether the current problems of urban-rural income gap and unemployment in Chinese rural areas will come to an end like some developing countries such as Japan and South Korea, which used to carry out a dual economy in the past.

Our framework is based on A. W. Lewis's theory of Dualism. Lewis's theory concerns the dual labor market in a nation. According to his model of dualism theory, there are two sectors in a dual economy, Urban Sector and Rural Subsistence Sector. The time span we consider is from the beginning of the reform and open policy in 1978 to 2000, when the market economy was introduced and, in particular, rural enterprises were positively established.

Nowadays Chinese shortage problem of labor force is getting serious in urban areas. This issue was mentioned and discussed that accumulated Outflow of Labor vs. Real Wage in Agricultural Sector by Professor T. Watanabe. His analysis of the turning point of an economic transition in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan was used to find out whether the turning point was occurred or will occur in China. According to the analysis of Labor Force outflow and Real Wage in China, the turning point was in 1989.

On the other hand, this paper is going to investigate the upgrading of the industrial structure in the development of Chinese economy by analyzing the money flow and the structural changes in employment. The enlargement of the industrial sector, capital and labor forces are indispensable for the progress of industrialization.

We will examine the function of capital to determine whether the agricultural sector could invest their profit in giving birth to the industrial sector. We will come to the conclusion that the agricultural sector in China has been a surplus unit since 1989. The surplus generated in this sector was invested in the industrial sector through financial institutions and the capital inflow since this sector has turned to be an influential factor in industrial development.

The authors demonstrate that the changing of industrial structure was 1989, by applying the analysis of capital and the labor force.