核兵器禁止条約の帰結 : 人道的アプローチの社会的影響

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the political and social consequences of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), the first treaty in history to completely ban the manufacture, possession, and use of nuclear weapons. Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) and their allies do not participate in TPNW, however, and TPNW supporters believe that if they first create norms to ban nuclear weapons and stigmatize them, moral rejection of nuclear weapons will increase and the ban will become easier. This idea is called the humanitarian approach.
This paper examines the practical consequences of the humanitarian approach when it is applied to nuclear weapons. The conclusion is that the humanitarian approach does not work for nuclear weapons. This is because while most people would agree that nuclear weapons are brutal weapons, most people do not believe that it is okay for their country alone to abandon them while other countries do not. Abandonment of nuclear weapons must be a reciprocal process, and for this to happen, the security environment must be improved. TPNW, however, cannot improve the security environment, because it can only affect democracies, not authoritarian states. Therefore, the NWS will try to ignore TPNW.
The problem is that TPNW does not have no impact at all, however may have an impact on some NWS allies. Among the European NATO allies, Norway and Denmark are not opposed to the humanitarian approach. The Netherlands and Belgium also have domestic supporters of the humanitarian approach. Germany has domestic disagreements over whether to continue NATO's nuclear sharing policy, and there are forces that reject the peaceful use of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. If these countries join the TPNW, it would mean in effect leaving NATO. While this is unlikely to happen anytime soon, NATO's controversies and social conflicts will intensify over whether to continue or abolish the nuclear sharing policy and how to deal with Russia's new medium-range nuclear missiles.
In Japan, too, there are forces that support joining TPNW, and this could cause serious conflicts if the LDP-Komeito coalition loses power and a government led by the Constitutional Democratic Party is formed.
The key to a humanitarian approach is the social diffusion of a moral perspective. Those who advocate the maintenance or buildup of nuclear weapons against humanity will be treated as evil. The conflict between those who support nuclear disarmament and those who maintain realism and national security will be one of good versus evil. Social conflicts will intensify, and the possibility of discussing nuclear disarmament will diminish.