Projections of school teacher demand at the turn of the century in Japan
Japanese school teacher market has been experiencing employment problems for more than ten years, because of the decline of number of live birth. Many Japanese colleges of education have been reorganized and have lost the enrolment quorum. But, the number of live birth in 1994 has begun to increase.
Future teacher demands were estimated by the two factors: future number of live birth and teacher retirement. The result has proved the rapid increase in primary school teacher demand after 1997 and in junior high school teacher demand after 2003. The golden age in primary school teacher market will come around 2010 and in junior high school teacher market around 2015. Absolute numbers of demands in school teacher will be enormous. Also, the differences in relative strength in demands among prefectures will be very large. Now, we should be careful about future planning of enrolment quorum in colleges of education.
広島大学教育学部紀要. 第一部, 教育学