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School Teacher Demand Projections for Japan until 2025 : When will the third recession period come ?
著者
キーワード
teacher demand
projection
primary school
junior high school
Japan
教員需要
推計
小学校
中学校
日本
NDC
教育
抄録(英)
There are two cycles of demands for school teachers for seventy years after the second world war in Japan. We are now in the third period of increasing demands. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the demands for primary and junior high school teachers for more than ten years from 2014 to 2025.  

It was found that demands for primary and junior high school teachers would reach the peak each around 2017 and 2020. Demand for primary school teachers will begin to decrease substantially around 2021. The third recession period of the demand will be expected to come around 2023 or later.  

The year and amount of the peak of the demands will differ among regions. In Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas, demand for primary school teachers has already decreased. The demand will decrease rapidly after 2021. However, in Tohoku, southern Kyushu and Okinawa, the demand will reach the peak around 2020.  

Reconsiderations of the size of teacher education programs, especially for the primary school teachers, will be necessary. The central government and prefectural boards of education should consider the regional differences of teacher demands.
掲載誌名
広島大学大学院教育学研究科紀要. 第三部, 教育人間科学関連領域
63号
開始ページ
11
終了ページ
20
出版年月日
2014-12-19
出版者
広島大学大学院教育学研究科
ISSN
1346-5562
NCID
言語
日本語
NII資源タイプ
紀要論文
広大資料タイプ
学内刊行物(紀要等)
DCMIタイプ
text
フォーマット
application/pdf
著者版フラグ
publisher
部局名
教育学研究科
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