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ID 51525
file
creator
Bunodiere, Alex
subject
renewable energy
curtailment
mitigation
solar
grid interconnection
Kyushu
abstract
High variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration led to the first-ever VRE curtailment in Japan, occurring in Kyushu in October 2018. Since then, there has been an average of 3% solar curtailment, with a peak of 13.7% in April 2019, resulting in approximately ¥9.6 billion of wasted energy. The VRE curtailment is expected to worsen as VRE penetration continues to increase along with nuclear energy increment in line with Japan’s 2030 energy goals. To prevent this curtailment and increase energy stability, a novel, logic-based forecasting method using hourly supply/demand data was developed. Initially, inaccurate results were returned; however, after several rounds of calibration that adjusted the quartile value of the max/min operating windows, the overall accuracy of this method was increased to 97% of real curtailment. This calibrated model was then used to test several curtailment mitigation scenarios. Some scenarios increased curtailment, while the two most successful scenarios, which reduced the installed nuclear capacity either seasonally or totally, limited curtailment by 95% and 97%, respectively. Another scenario with increased grid interconnection between regions reduced curtailment by 79%. Moreover, it would provide other benefits by unifying the national grid thereby increasing disaster resistance, reducing curtailment, improving grid flexibility and allowing for higher VRE penetrations. Currently, the situation is worsening, and some actions are required to reduce the curtailment and to achieve its 2030 energy goals in Japan. The mitigation measures studied by the logic method could be recommended to be referred to.
journal title
Energies
volume
Volume 13
issue
Issue 18
start page
4703
date of issued
2020-09-09
publisher
MDPI
issn
1996-1073
publisher doi
language
eng
nii type
Journal Article
HU type
Journal Articles
DCMI type
text
format
application/pdf
text version
publisher
rights
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
relation url
department
Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering