The Bulletin of the Center for Research on Regional Economic Systems, the Graduate School of Social Science, Hiroshima University Issue 26
2015-03 発行

人口構成の変化による普通交付税への影響 : 2020年における基準財政収入額・基準財政需要額の試算 <研究ノート>

Influences of population composition change to the local allocation tax grant : A trial estimation of basic fiscal demands and revenues in 2020
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abstract
We derived three estimate equations of the basic fiscal demands, basic fiscal revenues and local consumption tax grant from the local finance accounting and population composition of 1,592 municipalities in 2010 excluding the twenty-three wards of Tokyo and the municipalities of the three Tohoku prefectures which suffered from the Great Earthquake in 2011. The basic fiscal demands, basic fiscal revenues and local consumption tax grant in 2020 were estimated by substituting the population composition of 2020 into those equations. We assumed that the consumption tax including local consumption tax had risen to 10% in 2020.

Owing to the increase of the population aged 65 and over, the amount of basic fiscal demands will rise from \19.4 trillion in 2010 to \23.7 trillion in 2020 by 22.2%. Due to the decrease of the population aged 15 to 64, the amount of basic fiscal revenues will fall from \13.2 trillion in 2010 to \12.6 trillion in 2020 by 4.5%. As the gap between them expands, the amount of local allocation tax grant will soar up from \6.3 trillion in 2010 to \11.1 trillion in 2020 by 76.2%. The municipalities, which do not need local allocation tax grant because the basic fiscal revenues exceed the basic fiscal demands, will decline from 67 in 2010 to 16 in 2020. If each municipality could gain the population aged 15 to 64 even by a few percent points, it would reduce the amount of local allocation tax grant.


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subject
2020年
基準財政収入額
基準財政需要額
普通交付税
Basic fiscal demands
Basic fiscal revenues
Local allocation tax grant