We derived three estimate equations of the basic fiscal demands, basic fiscal revenues and local consumption tax grant from the local finance accounting and population composition of 1,592 municipalities in 2010 excluding the twenty-three wards of Tokyo and the municipalities of the three Tohoku prefectures which suffered from the Great Earthquake in 2011. The basic fiscal demands, basic fiscal revenues and local consumption tax grant in 2020 were estimated by substituting the population composition of 2020 into those equations. We assumed that the consumption tax including local consumption tax had risen to 10% in 2020.
Owing to the increase of the population aged 65 and over, the amount of basic fiscal demands will rise from \19.4 trillion in 2010 to \23.7 trillion in 2020 by 22.2%. Due to the decrease of the population aged 15 to 64, the amount of basic fiscal revenues will fall from \13.2 trillion in 2010 to \12.6 trillion in 2020 by 4.5%. As the gap between them expands, the amount of local allocation tax grant will soar up from \6.3 trillion in 2010 to \11.1 trillion in 2020 by 76.2%. The municipalities, which do not need local allocation tax grant because the basic fiscal revenues exceed the basic fiscal demands, will decline from 67 in 2010 to 16 in 2020. If each municipality could gain the population aged 15 to 64 even by a few percent points, it would reduce the amount of local allocation tax grant.
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