The Bulletin of the Center for Research on Regional Economic Systems, the Graduate School of Social Science, Hiroshima University Issue 25
2014-03 発行

中国地域における2050年までの長期人口予測 : 地域間人口移動の特徴を考慮した推計 <論文>

Long-Term Demographic Forecasting for the Chugoku Region Until 2050 : An Estimation Considering the Characteristics of Inter-Regional Migration <Article>
Nakano, Kazuyoshi
Otsuka, Akihiro
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abstract
This paper develops a population forecasting model for the Chugoku region in Japan, highlighting the consistent structure of interregional migration, and the effects of economic disparity between regions. By considering the changes in out-migration rate by age, the results show that population aging causes a reduction in interregional migration, which leads to natural demographic change dominating. Moreover, it is predicted that elderly people will rapidly increase by 24% in Hiroshima prefecture due to the aging of post-war baby boomers that had inflow during the rapid growth period, and so again natural demographic change will become increasingly significant. The forecasts of other institutions, which assume that the net migration rate during 2005-2010 will remain constant in the future, are more pessimistic than the results found in this paper. Lastly, the change in the fertility rate may affect the prefectural population in the Chugoku region in 2050 by around 10%.
subject
少子高齢化
地域人口予測
多地域モデル
Aging society
Regional population forecasting
Multi-regional model