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ID 30885
本文ファイル
著者
Lee, BackJin
キーワード
Traffic demand
Gasoline price
Elasticity
Spatiotemporal changes
Bayesian updating
Random coefficient model
NDC
運輸・交通
抄録(英)
This study attempts to,examine spatiotemporal changes of traffic demand elasticities regarding gasoline prices and economic conditions and focusing on the substantial fluctuations that occurred throughout 2008 in Japan This research is aim led at a better understanding of the spatial and temporal instability of the elasticities and possible reasons for changes in the elasticities First, a random coefficient model is built to represent spatial heterogeneity in the elasticities and is estimated by using a hierar ducal Bayesnin method Next, a sequential Bayesian updating method is applied to examine monthly changes in the elasticities The data used in the empirical analylsis were monthly traffic volume data collected on 53 expressways The results showed that although the monthly changes in the average elasticities over all routes were mainly observed before August 2008, different directions of change across routes were observed after September 2008 when gasoline prices began to fall The results also indicated that responses to gasoline price changes might be dependent on the causes of price changes Furthermore, on urban expressways, it was found that once a reduction in traffic demand was attained because of rising gasoline prices, the demand did not fully recover even after the actual prices fell again to the original level
掲載誌名
Transportation Research Record
2156巻
開始ページ
81
終了ページ
92
出版年月日
2010
出版者
National Academy of Sciences
ISSN
0361-1981
NCID
出版者DOI
言語
英語
NII資源タイプ
学術雑誌論文
広大資料タイプ
学術雑誌論文
DCMIタイプ
text
フォーマット
application/pdf
著者版フラグ
author
権利情報
Copyright (c) 2010 National Academy of Sciences
関連情報URL
部局名
国際協力研究科